Hainan-Sanya-Haikou Expat

Does our venerable and respected real estate veteran Sam Crispin hit the mark with his round two jab on the continued boiling cauldron of real estate stew here in Sanya?...

Sam recently weighed in with this insightful and important comment:

"Rumours about of Hainan offering visa free access for nationals of over 20 countries and that the real estate market, as I and not Mario predicted, is going nuts again. Watch what happens over Chinese new year, that's the peak sales season in this hot, hot, hot market! Mario, there's more than one beer riding on this."

Perhaps Sam hits on some encouraging thoughts here with some substance behind them. In fact, with the Chinese New Year holiday coming, he is right on the mark regarding the seasonal bump in asking prices heading into the Chinese New Year season, so there is some truth to the idea that the market is "heating up" a bit. After all, I hate to be a touch negative but the holidays are the perfect time to find more suckers bidding prices unreasonably higher and higher just like the stock markets. And if they're willing to come to Sanya that week paying full airfare and 5000rmb/night for a 15000rmb room, by all means, let them pay inflated prices for Sanya's property too!

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Many of us enjoy tropical beaches and Sanya is China's only true, genuine tropical beach destination. Over the past 3 years of development "Sanya" has become the catch-all word comprising the 160kilometer south/southeast coastline starting from the Kempinski Resort at Sanya Bay running up through Dadonghai, Yalong Bay and Haitang Bay to the Le Meridien Resort at the northern side of Shimei Bay. Over a period of four years since first arriving, Sanya has been good to us and many of our friends. I have gotten to know her intimately, in great detail, both personally and in terms of business and market research.

Today, I cannot encourage you to join the speculative fools playing the Chinese real estate and stock markets right now, including Sanya's property market. This is an ugly and unfortunate scene, with prices way too high, way too fast, even though it might continue a while longer. Less than 1 1/2 years ago a very knowledgeable local business owner and I sat over coffee discussing that prices in the area will most likely reach 20,000rmb per square meter "someday", probably two to three or five years later. Since then, prices have rocketed to over 30,000rmb psqm and higher. The cauldron of witches brew is boiling and buyers are stepping back.

Andy Xie, ex-Morgan Stanley China analyst in the U.S., has recently called the real estate and stock market rise in China a giant ponzi scheme. Strong words from a person we can rightfully call in the know. Please be sure to at least read his remarks further on down in this report. After exhaustively analyzing and watching both markets, I am grateful for the returns I've made and now I am getting very jittery at these heights, in full agreement with Mr. Xie.

"Looking more broadly beyond the real estate market, we can also sense there is a strong case of bias emerging from Chinese big business to subtly push foreigners out of China, as they come up with one big event excuse or another (Beijing Olympics, 60th National Day Anniversary, next the Shanghai World Expo) to severely limit visa permissions and make it harder to do business according to the recent scathing European Commission Annual Position Paper. The Chinese are perhaps starting to enjoy their little victory party as they seem to be the pied piper leading the world out of its economic crisis. America is cash broke. Europe is cash broke. Asia is flush with cash starting with China. That's the economic reality and in fact we should appreciate its importance and value." Mario Cavolo

Indeed, the global depressed economy is causing companies to cutback on expenses and one way to do that is to localize the expat management positions and send the expats packing as many companies have needed to do.

As I am the only person on planet earth who writes and publishes a reasonably accurate and detailed Sanya Real Estate Quarterly Report, that makes me the de facto investment real estate analyst of the moment whose job is to sometimes go out on a limb and call the bubble. There is always some possibility the bubble will continue for a few more years to even dizzier heights before it inevitably will burst. If so, it is I who am the fool today. If not, it is I the revered wizard analyst tomorrow. If prices are substantially higher in the next 2-3 years, that state of economic affairs will probably also reflect severe inflation and currency devaluation issues worldwide as the underlying financial crisis continues to unwind in ways we haven't seen yet. The unwinding of the crisis is far from over and we shall see.

Going into the background analysis of the property market here, I start by enabling you our valued and appreciated readers to understand this bubble very quickly by making you a genuine Sanya real estate apartment offer. Do take a moment to compare this sample Sanya real estate offer to other possible choices you have in China, and also compared to other possible countries in Southeast Asia, North America, Australia/New Zealand and the European Continent.

Go to the next page to view today's amazing ocean-view luxury apartment offer and judge the lunacy for yourself!

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