Hainan-Sanya-Haikou Expat

You just have to love the Sanya evenings this past week with the temp coming down and the breeze kicking up. Check out Tim's Dadonghai Dusk video here. Oh yes Sanya really IS tropical paradise. Let's not forget the facts. Somebody did complain a bit about the lack of posts...admittedly true but the reality is threefold.

First there is in fact a dearth of new news. Yes the hotels and apartment complexes are being built. Yes, real estate prices went way too high and are drifting back down as speculators and fools across China start seeing reality more clearly. Secondly, we're in the summer low season, which is a normal if not slightly negative phenomenon for tourist destinations throughout the world but as you'll read below, still many good things worth mentioning. In June, there will be student holiday arrivals and then we'll see what July and August have in store. As in the European winter, many shopkeepers close their doors during the low season. It looks like the original Dadonghai Rainbow finally closed its doors and it is officially announced the Kempinski Sanya Resort is no longer under the Kempinski name, although I think they get to use the name for awhile longer.

Thirdly, new activity and posts will be found first at the new SanyaExpat site at www.sanyaexpat.ning.com. We'll keep you linked here to whatever is going on over there which is where all the action and info is and where YOU belong!!

So moving on to much upbeat and happy, head over to Fat Daddy's for 29rmb imported Aussie beer promotion....brands include Crown, Pure Blonde, RedBack, James Hoags, VB Bitter, green curry at Pattaya Thai still works perfectly, one can never complain about 10rmb small draft beers at Dadonghai's Wave Bar and you have to try the new Shepherd's Pie at CoffeeWorld....Aussie beer list coming soon...the Dadonghai Mall makeover turned out quite nice and heaven above forgive me for never before mentioning that there is a four lane bowling alley at the Shan Hai Tian Hotel in Dadonghai...

Welcome to new members Simon Jones, who successfully found the He Ping Lu downtown dental clinic we recommended, and to Bernie Flores, entertainer extraordinaire still doing his thing at the Ritz Carlton Yalong Bay. Bernie, we want you to post some video clips PLLLEEASSEEEE!!!!

Cheers, Mario

We will send you a free drink thank you email which you can print out and redeem at either restaurant, redeemable until the end of May.

Cheers, Mario

Those of us residing on Hainan Island, China, particularly in Sanya, can enjoy feeling a bit puffed up due to a mainstream media front page story out of Market Watch's Hong Kong bureau on property prices gone wild here. When property values double in price in less than two weeks it should make the front page news. Indeed, these price moves could make derivatives traders blush.

As the publisher of Sanya's Quarterly Real Estate Report, our research and history on the ground in Sanya since 2006 led us to predict near the end of 2009 that prices for ocean front properties would and should level off in the 15 to 30,000rmb per square meter range. That's US $200-$400 per square foot.

Well, we were wrong. Wrong because reasonable based on the past doesn't apply in today's economic environment, both globally and in China.

Next page - taking a closer look to gain some insight.

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Many of us enjoy tropical beaches and Sanya is China's only true, genuine tropical beach destination. Over the past 3 years of development "Sanya" has become the catch-all word comprising the 160kilometer south/southeast coastline starting from the Kempinski Resort at Sanya Bay running up through Dadonghai, Yalong Bay and Haitang Bay to the Le Meridien Resort at the northern side of Shimei Bay. Over a period of four years since first arriving, Sanya has been good to us and many of our friends. I have gotten to know her intimately, in great detail, both personally and in terms of business and market research.

Today, I cannot encourage you to join the speculative fools playing the Chinese real estate and stock markets right now, including Sanya's property market. This is an ugly and unfortunate scene, with prices way too high, way too fast, even though it might continue a while longer. Less than 1 1/2 years ago a very knowledgeable local business owner and I sat over coffee discussing that prices in the area will most likely reach 20,000rmb per square meter "someday", probably two to three or five years later. Since then, prices have rocketed to over 30,000rmb psqm and higher. The cauldron of witches brew is boiling and buyers are stepping back.

Andy Xie, ex-Morgan Stanley China analyst in the U.S., has recently called the real estate and stock market rise in China a giant ponzi scheme. Strong words from a person we can rightfully call in the know. Please be sure to at least read his remarks further on down in this report. After exhaustively analyzing and watching both markets, I am grateful for the returns I've made and now I am getting very jittery at these heights, in full agreement with Mr. Xie.

"Looking more broadly beyond the real estate market, we can also sense there is a strong case of bias emerging from Chinese big business to subtly push foreigners out of China, as they come up with one big event excuse or another (Beijing Olympics, 60th National Day Anniversary, next the Shanghai World Expo) to severely limit visa permissions and make it harder to do business according to the recent scathing European Commission Annual Position Paper. The Chinese are perhaps starting to enjoy their little victory party as they seem to be the pied piper leading the world out of its economic crisis. America is cash broke. Europe is cash broke. Asia is flush with cash starting with China. That's the economic reality and in fact we should appreciate its importance and value." Mario Cavolo

Indeed, the global depressed economy is causing companies to cutback on expenses and one way to do that is to localize the expat management positions and send the expats packing as many companies have needed to do.

As I am the only person on planet earth who writes and publishes a reasonably accurate and detailed Sanya Real Estate Quarterly Report, that makes me the de facto investment real estate analyst of the moment whose job is to sometimes go out on a limb and call the bubble. There is always some possibility the bubble will continue for a few more years to even dizzier heights before it inevitably will burst. If so, it is I who am the fool today. If not, it is I the revered wizard analyst tomorrow. If prices are substantially higher in the next 2-3 years, that state of economic affairs will probably also reflect severe inflation and currency devaluation issues worldwide as the underlying financial crisis continues to unwind in ways we haven't seen yet. The unwinding of the crisis is far from over and we shall see.

Going into the background analysis of the property market here, I start by enabling you our valued and appreciated readers to understand this bubble very quickly by making you a genuine Sanya real estate apartment offer. Do take a moment to compare this sample Sanya real estate offer to other possible choices you have in China, and also compared to other possible countries in Southeast Asia, North America, Australia/New Zealand and the European Continent.

Go to the next page to view today's amazing ocean-view luxury apartment offer and judge the lunacy for yourself!

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